Louis du Plessis and I have written a short report of our calculations. They use the same logic as the estimates Richard Neher shared on Twitter, with a couple of extensions.

CAVEAT: The number of sequences and mutations are small, and the sequencing error rate is unknown, so all current tMRCA estimates should be treated with a pinch of salt. I’d wager a pint on our calculations but not a whole night out.

Thanks to everyone who has shared genomic data (go Jing!). Please let us know if you find any errors or oversights.

Oli & Louis

nCoVtimes_20genomes.pdf (1.4 MB)